54 Chasing the Wind: Assessing Philippine Democracy Table 2. Private Armed Groups and Loose Firearms by Region as of April 22, 2010. Region NCR Region 1 Region 2 Region 3 Region 4-A Region 4-B Region 5 Region 6 Region 7 Region 8 Region 9 Region 10 Region 11 Region 12 Region 13 (CARAGA) CAR ARMM Total Number of Private Armed Groups Number of Active Members 12 6 7 9 4 15 8 2 6 4 8 53 65 70 45 69 146 42 17 73 49 200 1 1 4 20 107 10 7 77 2856 3,779 Estimate of Loose Firearms 315,127 26,928 32,168 78,166 101,758 8,779 28,587 52,759 52,727 43,409 45,969 42,229 49,178 62,719 43,957 11,628 114,189 1,110,277 Source: PNP Reports as cited in The Independent Commission Against Private Armies, Report to the President, 2010. [also referred to as the Zeñarosa Commission] In its report to the president, the Zeñarosa commission also identified the provinces with the highest number of PAGs and the leaders of such groups. (See Table 3). Predictably, the provinces with the highest number of active PAG members were in the five ARMM provinces (Maguindanao, Basilan, Sulu, Tawi-Tawi, and Lanao del Sur). Moreover, the poorer provinces and those with lower HDI (Human Development Index) rankings also harbor more PAGs as again illustrated by the ARMM situation. Reflecting its longer history of violent warfare and the special clientelist-patronage accommodations made by national politicians with the local warlords in the region, the ARMM, not surprisingly, continues to have the greatest concentration of PAGs. In the crucible of war between the government and various armed groups in the region, old and new local politicians continue to nurture their own private armies with impunity. As also supported by the findings of the Zeñarosa commission, the worst situations are those in provinces where a number of rival political clans have their own PAGs and easy access to firearms, oftentimes facilitated by patronage ties with powerful national politicians. This situation is seen not only in the ARMM provinces but also in Abra, Camarines Sur, Samar, Zamboanga Sibugay, Cagayan, Masbate, Iloilo, Palawan, and Nueva Ecija.