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Chasing the Wind: Assessing Philippine Democracy, Second Edition
policies that may otherwise be parcellized in opportunistic ways by various
local ofcials. Such an advantageous network for the incumbent governor may
also be seen as a practical response to the weakness or absence of a political
party that normally assumes the orchestrator role. Moreover, the relative
autonomy enjoyed by local ofcials not only vis-à-vis central ofcials but also
among themselves in light of the Local Government Code is another problem
that can be addressed by this network of incumbent provincial ofcials linked
through familial bonds.
However, this nding seems to go against the conventional wisdom that
family networks that dominate elective positions in their localities are more
likely to privatize resources with impunity and disregard services and
decisions focused on public goods such as improving their HDI and lessening
poverty incidence. Perhaps in this kind of network, political families nd it
more cost effective to win elections by focusing on services that improve socioeconomic conditions. The more conventional responses stress the usual
privatization of government resources through corruption, providing highly
selective private goods for their loyal supporters, or engaging in the outright
but expensive and unreliable buying of votes. This network of ofcial
provincial incumbents makes possible the calculated use of public resources
such that some are deliberately allocated for social services to meet minimum
expectations while ensuring that enough is pocketed for the private coffers of
the incumbent family ofcials.
A proxy variable for gauging the impact of electoral competition on HDI
and poverty incidence is tested by the effective number of candidates running
for governor. The effective number of candidates refers not only to the actual
number of candidates running but to the actual votes received by each,
disregarding in the process candidates who receive a negligible proportion of
the total votes cast. The study shows that a bigger number of “effective
candidates” for governorship has a statistically signicant negative impact on
both the HDI and the poverty incidence, resulting in the worsening of both
measures. Once again, this result appears counterintuitive to the normal
expectation that more competitive elections, that is more effective number of
candidates would result in choosing better candidates and better prospects for
improving socio-economic conditions.
One traditional explanation argues that a more competitive election
translates to a more expensive process as both incumbents and challengers are
compelled to maximize the use of their resources to ensure victory in light of the
great uncertainty of the election outcome. Thus whoever wins in this costly
exercise is pressured to recoup one's expenses, looting the public coffer in the
process and leaving few resources left for public services. Another explanation
draws from “selectorate theory” (de Mesquita et al., 2003) which argues that the
smaller the winning coalition of the winning candidate, the greater is the
likelihood that the incumbent will use private goods to maintain the coalition.
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