Part III Assessing resources The principle of non-retrogression emphasizes that the scope and scale of reductions in allocations over time must be carefully examined. Of course, not every budget cut is necessarily retrogressive. Reducing unsustainable budget deficits may be a legitimate reason to introduce austerity measures that include cutting expenditures. Nevertheless, as discussed in Chapter 2, the reasonableness, or otherwise, of such cuts will depend on whether they are: • Temporary • Necessary and proportionate (i.e. other options are more detrimental) • Not discriminatory (and there is a duty to mitigate inequalities) • Ensure the protection of minimum core content of rights. 10.7. IN PRACTICE: CONDUCTING BUDGET ANALYSIS Before you begin analysing budgetary data, go back to your research matrix to refresh your memory about the indicators on resources that you are interested in exploring. Next, think about a meaningful time period over which to compare budgets. Do you want to look at the last five years? The last decade? The last 20 years? On the one hand, you need a time period that is long enough to reveal patterns and trends. On the other hand, you need to focus on information that is meaningful for current decision makers. Major events, like post-conflict or post-authoritarian transitions, or even changes in government, can be useful in setting the timeframe for your analysis. You then need to find relevant budgetary data (refer to Chapter 6 on secondary data) and analyse it to identify priority areas, benefit incidence and changes over time (indexed for inflation). For a refresher on analysing data in spreadsheets, refer to Chapter 8. Data on the budget cycle, including the Open Budget Index, is also important in determining whether the process is participatory and transparent. As you get further into your analysis, remember that an increase or decrease in the Government’s budget does not necessarily mean an increase in people’s enjoyment of their rights; a growing budget may be poorly targeted or wastefully spent (discussed further in Chapter 11), while a smaller budget may be used more efficiently and actually expand services to people. For this reason, budget analysis should not take place in isolation. The information gathered through budget analysis needs to be triangulated with the data gathered on outcomes and policy efforts (discussed further in Chapter 14). UPDATE FROM AHN Ahn gathers budgetary information and calculates the amount spent on the social sector generally, as well as on health specifically. She compares this to other countries and looks at trends over time. She finds that although social spending has increased a little in the past ten years, it is still much lower than neighboring countries. Over the same time period, allocations to the Ministry of Health did not exceed 1% of GDP. By comparison, neighboring countries with the lowest maternal mortality rates spent at least 5% of GDP on health. Ahn then calculates per capita health spending to compare different regions. She finds that, for the past five years, allocations to the metropolitan area, where the country’s capital city is located, were three times higher than the rural area, with the largest indigenous population and the highest percentage of people living in poverty. Chapter 10: Analysing public budgets | 109