Weaker trade, tighter
global financing conditions
and lower remittances will
entail a heavy toli on
employment worldwide.
According to the mid-2009
update ofthe UN's World
Economic Situation and
Prospects (WESP), at least
50 million more people are
seen to become unemployed
- which it said "could easily
double" - with hundreds of
millions more falling into the
ranks of the working poor especially in the underdeveloped countries. This is on top of
the 190 million that the International Labor Organization (ILO) already estimated to be
jobless at the end of 2008. Unemployment rates are already rising to double digits in the
advanced capitalist countries. The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) already
reported in June that the number of the world's hungry has surpassed one billion.
Moreover, The UN Department of Economic and SocialAffairs (DESA) estimates that
between 105 and 145 million more people would remain poor or fall into poverty because
of the current global economic crisis.
Relying on exports of low value-added goods and agricultural raw materials to the
advanced capitalist countries to drive domestic economic activity is under threat. There
will be an extended period before there is anything even approaching a retum to the high
growth paths of previous years. The main implication on migrants and migration is that
global labor markets will likely be tight for some time to come.
The Asian economic models of export-led development are among those
particularly undermined by their dependence on the advanced capitalist countries as
immediate and ultimate markets. The World Bank estimates the ASEAN-S economies
(i.e., Indonesia, Malaysia, Phitppines, Thailand and Vietnam) to as a whole contract by
0.3% n 2009. Singapore's economy is expected to contract by l0% n2009, Malaysia's
by 35% and Thailand's by 3.0 percent; Indonesia is still expected to grow but just by 2.5
percent.
OFWs are found in considerable numbers in distressed economies and high
risk economies. The Top 20 destination countries for overseas Filipinos of temporary and
irregular status account for 3.38 million or over two-thirds (67.0%) of the 5.0 million
overseas Filipinos of such status. (See Table 1) The IMF estimates that l7 of these 20
countries will contract in 2009 which will necessarily have an impact on OFWs already
working there or otherwise seeking to do so. In the two ASEAN countries in the Top 20,
Malaysia is estimated to contract 3 .5%o and. Singapore by a severe 10.0% this year.
2t