Scenario 3: The impact of climate change The globe continues to warm and the rate of climate change is accelerating. Average temperatures are higher, oceans are rising, storms are more extreme and more frequent, floods and droughts are more severe, rainfall patterns are changing, crops are failing … The changes are already obvious and are becoming more so. The consequences are most serious for the poorest States and the poorest people. Country A is a small island State. It is a series of atolls with a small land area, individually and totally, and a small population. The highest point on the land is 1.5 metres above the average low tide mark. The whole country could disappear as a result of higher ocean levels and more severe surges. When a strong storm hits, the islands are inundated and people struggle even to survive the winds and tides. Their homes are destroyed, along with civic infrastructure such as schools and health clinics. Country A has no manufacturing or other industry and contributes close to nothing at all to greenhouse gas emissions. It has played no role in global warming or climate change. Yet it faces an existential crisis. The population is dependent on the sea for food but a combination of higher sea temperatures and increased fishing by the fleets of other bigger, more powerful States, particularly Country B, is altering the nature of fisheries and the availability of seafood for the islands’ people. They have less food and less nutritious food. Their traditional culture suffers too for it was based on the sea and the people’s relationship with the sea. Country A’s NHRI has followed these developments with increasing concern. It is considering what, if any, action it can take. It has contacted Country B’s NHRI and wishes to proceed in collaboration with that NHRI. Subject to the law under which the NHRI of Country A is established and operates, the NHRI could take action in relation both to individuals involved in climate change and to the overall situation. In relation to individuals, the principal focus would be on the over-fishing that is affecting food adequacy in Country A. Country A’s NHRI could • Endeavour to identify those persons in Country B who are undertaking or responsible for the over-fishing of Country A’s fisheries and refer them to Country B’s NHRI for investigation and possible action • Determine whether any persons in Country A are contributing to the over-fishing of Country A’s fisheries and, if so, take action against them under its own law or refer them to police and prosecutors for investigation and possible action under Country A’s criminal law • Advise Country A’s government and parliament of any law reform or other action that may be necessary to provide greater protection of Country A’s fisheries. In relation to the overall situation of climate change and its impact on Country A and its people, subject to the law under which the NHRI of Country A is established and operates, Country A’s NHRI could • Undertake an inquiry into the situation, possibly in conjunction with Country B’s NHRI, examining in particular the broad causes of climate change, the consequences of climate change for Country A, whether there are any identifiable proximate causes of climate change affecting Country A, whether any human rights violations have occurred in Country A as a consequence of climate change and, if so, what action can be taken to prevent or mitigate those human rights violations • Recommend to the government and parliament of Country A any action that should be taken to prevent or mitigate the human rights violations in Country A that result from climate change • Offer support to Country B’s NHRI in its efforts to promote and protect human rights, in Country A and generally, in the situation more effectively • Join other NHRIs in their global and regional associations to bring the situation in Country A and in relation to human rights and climate change generally to the attention of the UN and other international forums, including recommending action that should be taken by the UN or other multilateral bodies and by individual States to deal with the human rights consequences of climate change and what action can be taken to prevent or mitigate these violations • Make media statements, either individually or with other NHRIs in their global and regional associations, about the situation and the obligations under international law arising from it. National action on international issues 47