52 Chasing the Wind: Assessing Philippine Democracy Election-Related Violence and Private Armed Groups The long history of election-related violence and the proliferation of private armed groups provide the first compelling reason for the failure of elections in the country to meet the minimum test of procedural fairness and credibility. Table 1 provides an accounting of election-related violence and deaths. While the figures show declining cases of election-related violence and deaths from 2004 to 2010, the reality is that many cases committed outside of the regular election period (120 days before election and 30 days after) are not included in the tally although these are clearly related to the electoral process. One recent study that examined cases of endemic electoral violence comprising 9 provinces and regions (Maguindanao, Abra, Lanao del Sur, Eastern Visayas, Sulu, Tawi-Tawi, Basilan, Nueva Ecija, and Masbate) referred to this cycle of violence as “Democracy at Gunpoint” (Chua and Rimban 2011). But the more disturbing question is how we can even refer to our system as a “democracy” when much of its electoral contests continue to be perverted by outright violence and coercion. Table 1: Election- Related Violence in the Philippines, 1986-2010. Type of Election Snap Presidential Local National & Local Congress & Local National & Local Congress & Local National & Local Congress & Local National & Local Year 1986 1988 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 Violent Incidents 364 405 157 244 322 152 249 229 180 Deaths 153 188 89 108 77 98 468 297 155 Source: Patino and Velasco 2004 (1986-2001 data); Vera Files 2011/Philippine National Police, 2004-2010 data. Another glaring evidence of the difficulty of ensuring free and fair elections in the country lies in the proliferation of active private armed groups (PAGs) directly controlled by political clans. While these PAGs are known by the local authorities, the deep ties of patronage and clientelism that bind national and local politicians and their networks in the local military and police have enabled these groups to operate with impunity. A dreadful example of these patron-client ties that have nurtured and protected local warlords and their private armies is the Ampatuan clan's rise to power in Maguindanao. As a