Rethinking Democratization in the Philippines: Elections, Political Families, and Parties
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In contrast, the larger the winning coalition in support of the winning
candidate, the more likely that the leader will use public goods to satisfy the
coalition. In short, if the winning margin/coalition is small such as in highly
competitive elections, there is greater pressure for the leader to use private
goods to maintain the loyalty of the supporters. In contrast, wider winning
margins and bigger coalitions in support of the leader which is more likely in
non-competitive elections might lead to the use of more public goods for
everybody. This behavior may arise when the leader feels more electorally
secure and the provision of private goods for favored electoral constituencies
and interest groups becomes less urgent.
Two related variables focus on incumbent governors having relatives
holding national ofce and situations where these relatives in national ofces
have held ofce in the past two terms. A governor with relatives who are also
incumbent nationally elected leaders does not impact signicantly on either the
provincial HDI or its poverty incidence. On the other hand, a governor with
relatives who had held national ofce in the past two terms has a signicant
positive impact on the improvement of the HDI but has no impact on poverty
incidence. Another related variable has to do with the “persistence factor” or
the number of years that the incumbent governor and the family hold power in
an unbroken cycle. The test shows that a longer “persistence” cycle has a
statistically signicant positive impact on the provincial HDI but with no
impact on the poverty incidence. These three variables suggest that national
resources received by provincial governors may help in addressing socioeconomic issues if done in a sustained period of time. The political “persistence
factor” seems to be a logical and empirical requisite for effectively addressing
oftentimes intractable poverty-related problems which typically demand
many years of sustained growth and redistributive efforts. The challenge is to
determine how long a period of the infusion of an outside national resource is
necessary to more effectively address development outcomes. In this regard,
the impact of term limits on the persistence factor for both national and local
ofcials also needs to be examined more closely.
A political variable examining the effect of an incumbent governor running
under the president's party also shows no statistically signicant impact on
either the HDI or the poverty incidence of the province. The normal expectation
in this case is that the incumbent governor will have easier access to
presidential resources that may be used potentially to address socio-economic
problems. This nding suggests, however, that access to presidential resources
and prerogatives by an incumbent governor is determined not so much by
formal party afliation with the president but by more particularistic criteria
such as kinship ties and history of friendships and informal alliances with the
executive.
Finally, an incumbent governor running as an independent may nd more
difculties addressing poverty issues since this variable has a statistically
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