72 Chasing the Wind: Assessing Philippine Democracy of the same list. The ARMM provinces show extreme variations in turnover rates with Basilan having 5.0, Sulu with 3.5, Lanao del Sur at 2.5, Maguindanao at 1.5 while Tawi-Tawi only had one. Moreover, the long history of violence and the proliferation of loose arms in the ARMM may have contributed to a much more unstable situation for elite consolidation. On the possible relationship of turnover rates with HDI outcomes, the study suggests that turnover rates for governors in the richer provinces show virtually no difference with those of the poorer provinces as measured by HDI rankings in 2006 (see Table 15). This implies that established political families in the poorer provinces have as much capabilities of retaining power as their counterparts in the richer provinces. Moreover, the greater political competition that is assumed to exist with more political players in the richer provinces does not seem to have significantly dented the resilience of these established families. When some of these established families do suffer electoral defeats they get replaced by families that soon consolidate into new centers of political dominance. Table 15: Average Turnover Rates for Governors : Top 20 and Lowest 20 Provinces by HDI Rank Top 20 Provinces, HDI 2006 Governors’ Average Turnover Rate (1988-2007) 1.6 Average No. of Political Families per province 2.8 Lowest 20 provinces, HDI 2006 1.65 Average No. of Political Families per province 2.0 Probing into the impact of good governance on electoral outcomes, a study of the 2004 elections by a team of researchers from the National Statistical Coordination Board (NSCB) also showed conflicting results (Virola et al. 2004). Using the Good Governance Index (GGI) to classify the best and worst provinces, Virola et al. found out that 8 out of the 10 incumbent governors from the 10 best provinces in 2004 (Laguna, Batanes, Rizal, Benguet, Cavite, Bulacan, Bataan, South Cotabato, Batangas and Siquijor) who ran for reelection as governor or congressperson won, while two lost.26 But a surprisingly similar result was obtained in the 10 worst provinces (Masbate, Sulu, Maguindanao, Romblon, Northern Samar, Surigao del Sur, Lanao del Norte, Sultan Kudarat, Camarines Norte and Sorsogon) when 8 out of the 10 incumbent governors who ran for reelection won, while two lost (one ran for Congress). Further probing into the impact on electoral outcomes of socio-economic indicators based on the HDI rankings of provinces in 2006, this study also shows that incumbent reelectionist governors win not only in high HDI